IT budget planning typically follows a linear logic: moderately rising demand meets predictable price trends. However, the current market situation is undermining this planning certainty. While corporate budgets are often growing only marginally, we are seeing price increases for critical core components such as DRAM and NAND flash that are out of proportion to general inflation.
For IT managers and finance executives, this means a significant loss of real purchasing power. Those who rigidly cling to traditional procurement channels (CapEx) risk creeping technological obsolescence.
TL;DR - What you should take with you
- Massive loss of purchasing power: While IT budgets remain flat, skyrocketing memory costs (DRAM/NAND) are driving hardware prices up by as much as 17% according to Gartner’s forecast, which undermines traditional capital expenditure (CapEx) planning.
- The "technological debt" trap: Delaying hardware upgrades saves cash in the short term, but in the long run leads to unpredictable support costs, security vulnerabilities, and a massive productivity bottleneck.
- A strategic shift toward a usage-based model: Modern operating models (HaaS) act as a risk buffer by transforming unpredictable market volatility into predictable OpEx costs and decoupling IT agility from the rigid depreciation cycle.
- Focus on availability rather than ownership: In a volatile market environment, owning hardware becomes a concentrated risk—by 2026, competitiveness will hinge on flexible access to modern technology, not on whether it is capitalized as a fixed asset.
The Anatomy of Price Increases: A Structural Problem
The current volatility is no longer just a short-term logistical issue. We are observing a fundamental shift in market dynamics: semiconductor manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin capacity for AI infrastructure and cloud data centers. As a result, the traditional client market (laptops, workstations) is becoming a buffer, which immediately leads to massive price surges during demand spikes.
This assessment is supported by recent analyses from Gartner: Experts predict that prices for DRAM and SSDs will rise by up to 130% by the end of 2026. This will have a direct impact on end-user devices. Gartner expects PC prices to increase by an average of 17%. Particularly critical: The low-margin entry-level segment under $500 is expected to disappear completely from the market by 2028 due to high component costs.
The danger of “technological debt”
When hardware prices outpace budget growth, a dangerous gap emerges. The first instinct of many companies is to “stretch the lifecycle”—that is, to extend the useful life of existing devices. According to Gartner, this trend will result in business PCs remaining in use 15% longer on average.
However, what seems commercially sensible almost inevitably leads to technological debt:
- Rising support costs: As the fleet ages, maintenance costs and downtime increase disproportionately.
- Increased security risks: Older hardware often does not support modern, hardware-based security features (such as current TPM standards or AI-powered threat detection), which increases the attack surface.
- Productivity bottleneck: The gap between modern software requirements (keyword: local AI models) and outdated hardware performance continues to widen.
De-risking through operating models
In such a market phase, the focus shifts from purely technical equipment to risk management. The key question for commercial IT is no longer “How much does the device cost?” but “How do we ensure availability at predictable costs?”
Models such as Hardware as a Service (HaaS) or structured leasing models serve as a strategic buffer in this context:
- Preserving liquidity: Instead of tying up large sums of money as capital expenditures (CapEx) in depreciating assets, IT costs become predictable operating expenses (OpEx). This helps avoid a five-figure “investment shortfall.”
- Decoupling from market cycles: By utilizing rental models, IT managers avoid the need to approve large capital expenditures at the “wrong” time (when prices are at their peak). Refreshes are based on actual needs, not driven by market conditions.
- Flexibility instead of depreciation backlog: While traditional 3- to 5-year depreciation cycles often slow down progress, modern financing models enable the agility needed to respond to market changes without burdening the balance sheet with extraordinary depreciation charges.
Key Takeaways for IT Managers and CFOs
In volatile times, owning hardware poses a concentrated risk. A modern approach to commercial IT recognizes that what matters is the hardware’s utility, not its classification as a fixed asset on the balance sheet.
While leasing models don’t offer complete protection against the inflation in component prices described by Gartner, they do help absorb the shocks. They transform unpredictable market risks into a stable cost line and ensure that your IT infrastructure remains operational—regardless of how semiconductor raw material prices fluctuate.
